Tuesday, October 1, 2013

THE PITTSBURGH PIRATES + FANS DEFEAT THE REDS

In my last post I mentioned how home field was such a small part of the equation for Tuesday and how home field could not matter that much in the scheme of things.

I take it back. I take it all back.

I knew the atmosphere would be incredible. I went in with high expectations. I mean, I was nervous to hell about the game itself, who could blame me, but the one thing I was high on was watching the fans and the feelings in PNC Park. And at the moment of the first pitch I was blown away with how the Pirate fans were acting. They were deafening, in your face, raucous, and of course, deeply into the game. It reminded me of Oakland and the fans they have there. Raiders fans are loud and in your face, and A's fans are often the same, though their ballpark limits their impact a bit.

The Pirates were that and more. They wore all black. They screamed at the top of their lungs. And thanks to PNC Park, they were right on top of the game (and, in a couple cases, perhaps too on top of the game, when a fan seemed to touch an eventual Choo homer, and another touched an in play ball the next at bat). All the weight of 20 years of losing came crashing into PNC Park at once. In an elimination game. It was glorious.

The fact that it was an elimination game no doubt added to the elation. This was the first Pirate game in a long time, and it was life or death.

There were so many great moments of the game, but I want to focus on one: Cueto dropping the ball and immediately giving up a homer to Russell Martin.

Earlier that inning, Marlon Byrd assaulted a Cueto pitch into the left field stands (and those seats and bleachers out in left looked crazy by the way, with all the black shirts). The fans, sensing weakness, started chanting "Cue-to! Cue-to!" over and over.

With 1 out and nobody on, the count was 1-1 to Martin. Cueto delivered a ball outside to Martin, and the fans jumped on him. Here's the video. They were relentless, and Cueto dropped the ball as he approached the rubber. After that, there was no stopping the fans from having their way with Cueto.

In the most direct fans has an effect on the game situation I've ever seen, Cueto badly missed his spot with his fastball and catcher Ryan Hanigan knew it. Martin was all over that pitch in the center of the zone and slammed the ball to left. 2-0 Bucs.

That sequence represented the game for me.

There's so much else to talk about, almost too much, that I'm just gonna run them down, because you could go on for days honestly about this game and there's just no way to do it justice. Just watch the replay.

Liriano was brilliant, especially in the early innings. He was poison to the Reds' big lefties Choo, Votto, and Bruce as they combined to go 1 for 8 against him, with a single, a HBP, and 4 strikeouts.

Liriano's control and energy tailed off a bit in the 6th and 7th giving up a few hits, but he held it together, and the Reds only tallied one run off him.

Even with Liriano taling off in the later innings, panic never really set in, the Pirates had a comfortable lead by then, and you knew Hurdle would be quick to use his biggest weapon, his bullpen. The biggest scare in the game happened in the 4th, when with 1 run already in in the inning, 2 outs, and 2 runners on, Todd Frazier hit a long and high fly ball that looked foul off the bat but just kept.... on... staying.... straight. It just would not bend foul! Thankfully, it lined a good 10 or so feet to the left of the left field pole, but that strike gave just about every Pirate fan in the universe a mild heart attack.

Liriano recovered and struck out Frazier to end the inning.

Frazier was actually the biggest thorn in the Pirates side, as he nabbed a couple of balls at third to sap some of the pirates chances, including a great dive into the left camera well to catch a Walker foul, and a humpback liner off the bat of Justin Morneau.

But it wasn't enough for the Reds.

McCutchen was clutch as expected. 2 for 3 with 2 BB (including 1 IBB) was key in the center of that lineup. He also went all out an eventual double that showed he was all-in on this game. Love seeing a player pay out like that.

Neil Walker continued his hot hitting, lacing a double off the left field wall off Sean Marshall (Who is a lefty! That's supposed to be Walker's kryptonite!)

And the big star Russell Martin, with two big homers.

Marte, Byrd, Morneau, Alvarez, Barmes were also big parts of the win, all getting at least one hit, except for Pedro who made up for that with a key sac fly that he fisted into center.

It really was a team victory. From the 1st man to the 10th.

Watson (who gave up the Choo homer) and Grilli finished it off, Grilli having a particularly swift 9th.

Bucs win 6-2. This is what I've been dreaming about all year.

See you in St. Louis on Thursday!

Sunday, September 29, 2013

Pirates end the regular season with a sweep in Cincinnati

Finishing strong. You hear the media talk about a team like the Braves or the Dodgers and they say "they haven't had much to play for these past couple weeks, and their not blowing away the competition; they're not finishing strong."

I honestly don't think there's much value in "finishing strong." A team that's on a hot streak could cool off any day, and a team that's not playing well could string a couple games together at the beginning of the postseason easily. Especially good teams like the Braves and the Dodgers.

However, there is something to be said for a team that looks relaxed and is not trying to do too much.

You can easily notice when a bunch of players are swinging out of their shoes. They refuse to work the count, they can't stay back on off-speed stuff. They're just dying to be that spark. A team that's relaxed and playing their own game at their own pace is in a good place. It's not much, but it's something, and it can dictate the direction of a few games for sure. I've seen it this season when the Bucs have gone on extended stretches without scoring. It happened earlier this month.

Why mention all this?

Because this paltry bit of analysis is the best I can provide going into the Wild Card game. Liriano's starting. Great. Cueto's starting. Not so great. The Pirates have home field. Great to see, but will have barely any effect on the game, despite what some people will say of Liriano's home/away splits (his worse ERA on the road is due entirely to the Milwaukee and Colorado meltdowns, his xFIP is almost identical home or away). It's very possible none of these facts will have any bearing on the outcome of the biggest game of the year for the Bucs. It's one game. Anything could happen. Anything.

And since there's basically no way to tell what will happen heading into Tuesday, the only thing I can say is that as I've watched the Pirates this past week, they look like a team that can play. They look competitive (not just cause they've won, but how; they've honestly played some nice fundamental baseball this past week and they look like a complete team). They have Grilli back, though he's not quite at 100% he's looked better this past week than he has in a while. Justin Wilson is back, a key part of the bullpen that we need in there. The rest of the bullpen has been holding strong, with extremely few red flags of late. Even Bryan Morris has pitched well of late. On the offensive side, McCutchen, Alvarez, Byrd, Morneau, and especially Neil Walker have been looking good. Starling Marte is healthy and back with the team and in the lineup every day. Probably the biggest red flag for the offense is Russell Martin, who still more than makes up for his nosediving OBP by dint of his defense. And then the starting pitching. Cole's been amazing lately. Morton's been very good (not his best start Saturday but with a wider lens he's been very good). A.J. holding up, he's not tiring at all. And of course Liriano is still as Liriano as he's been all year. On top of that, the defense has looked solid lately, with few errors, and a smart strategy that puts the defenders in the right places more often than not.

Any of this could change on Tuesday. Hot streaks, trends, and health can turn on a dime. But the point is, if you could draw up what you wanted the Pirates to look like heading into the post-season, this would just about be it. Their players are healthy, strong, and playing good baseball. It won't guarantee anything, but it's better than any of the alternatives. And with such a crapshoot coming up, that's all you can say.

The Pirates will play a competitive game on Tuesday in Pittsburgh. It'll be the first postseason game in the history of PNC Park.

Amazing.

After all that ado, let's review the last three games of the season. The first two of which guaranteed that the Wild Card game would be played in Pittsburgh, eliminating Scenario 1 from my last post.

27 September - Pirates 4 Reds 1 - Burnett vs. Bailey. Burnett was great. He had the Reds diving after his curve all night, they were helpless.

After a Marlon Byrd 2 RBI single in the 3rd and a Todd Frazier HR in the 4th, the score was 2-1.

Bailey, who had been laboring through 5 tough innings was brought out for the 6th. He was greeted by Marlon Byrd with a long double that was objectively the farthest you can hit a ball in that ballpark and not get a HR (the ball somehow hit a jutting corner at the top of the left center field wall, it was reviewed and rightly ruled a double).

Bailey dodged that bullet, but he wouldn't dodge the next.

Pedro Alvarez crushed a 2 run homer and the Bucs went up 4-1. Bailey was taken out before retiring a batter in the 6th.

Burnett continued his dominance of the Reds lineup through 8, and finished with a stellar line of 8 IP 1 ER 5 H 1 BB 6 K's. Jason Grilli entered in the 9th to rack up his 33rd and final save of the regular season.

Bucs win #92.

28 September - Pirates 8 Reds 3 - Morton vs. Arroyo. Both pitchers got a bit roughed up, one more than the other.

The Pirates launched 6 home runs this afternoon (5 of which were off Bronson Arroyo). Those six were, in order:

Walker, McCutchen, Alvarez, Walker, Byrd, Lambo.

All solo shots except for Byrd's 2 run HR, which also knocked in Morneau. Lambo's, a pinch-hit homer, was the first of his career, and the only one off of a reliever.

The Reds fell behind early, but clawed back to a 3-2 lead against Morton in the 3rd, before falling victim to the Bucs' home run barrage.

Neither starter made it to the fifth.

The Pirate bullpen stepped up in a big way, with Mazzaro, Wilson, Watson, Melancon, and Morris combining for 4 2/3 scoreless innings. Big props to Mazzaro who got out of Morton's jam in the 5th, and Wilson who threw a scoreless inning despite not having his best control. Watson and Melancon did what we've come to expect and Morris pitched a nice 9th to end the ball game.

With win #93, the Pirates ensured the Wild Card game would be in Da Burgh.

29 September - Pirates 4 Reds 2 - Sunday's game was completely void of any meaning, as the NL playoff picture was entirely set, except for who would play the winner of the Wild Card game, which the Cards ensured would be them after completing their sweep of the Chicago Cubs to end the season.

At the end of last week, I guessed that in order to have a shot at the division the Bucs would have to go 5-1, and hope for the Cards to go 3-3. The Bucs actually nailed their part of the deal, but the Cardinals went 6-0. Such is the life of a team needing help.

The Bucs will have to do it themselves on Tuesday.

On Sunday, Brandon Cumpton won, Greg Reynolds lost, Jordy Mercer hit an inside the park HR (a line drive that an outfielder dove at and missed), and Garrett Jones also added a solo shot. Bucs tally #94, far exceeding my expectations from the beginning of the year.

I had them at 87 I think, and even I thought I was being optimistic.

The Bucs have had a great regular season. But there will be plenty of time to look back on it during the winter time.

For now, it's all about Tuesday night on the North Shore.

LET'S GO BUCS!

Thursday, September 26, 2013

Bucs split last two games of Cubs series, game up on Reds, nearly eliminated from division

The Nats did the Bucs no favors. If we're honest, the Bucs didn't do themselves many favors these past few weeks, so they certainly have no on to blame for losing out on the division but themselves.

But damn, the Nats couldn't get one measly game?

The Bucs took 2 of 3 in the last series at Wrigley. A decent result, but it's not gonna get it done with regard to the division. Let's take a look at the last two games of the series, after the Bucs clinched their playoff spot:

24 September - Pirates 8 Cubs 2 - It was nice to see Marte, McCutchen, Byrd, and Alvarez all have good nights. The Cubs trotted out lefty Chris Rusin, who was tagged and couldn't escape the 3rd.

Gerrit Cole was a tiny bit off relative to his recent stretch of fantastic performances, but was still good: 6 IP 2 ER 7 H 1 BB 6 K's. Cole also had probably the biggest hit of the day, a 2 run single with 2 outs in the 2nd to give the Bucs a 3-0 lead. Very reminiscent of the hit he had in his MLB Debut on June 11.

The story of the night was Cole's balancing act it in the bottom of the 6th. Two singles and a walk loaded the bases with nobody out. And then a Jordy Mercer committed an error that should've at least been one out.

So with the bases still loaded and nobody out, 1 run in, Cole had to step it up in a 6-2 game that was far from over.

Cole dug deep against Dioner Navarro, falling behind 3-0 he battled back for a clutch strikeout. Next he struck out Luis Valbuena on a 2-2 pitch. Finally, he got Donnie Murphy to fly out on a 1-0 pitch.

That rocky inning spelled the end of the night for him, but it was very impressive to see him step up and hold it together in the face of some adversity.

Overall a good win. Win #91.

25 September - Pirates 2 Cubs 4 - Before this game was over, the Reds had lost to the Mets, which meant that a Pirate win would set the Bucs up very nicely for the final series of the season, only having to win one of the three games to claim home field advantage for the Wild Card game.

Also before this game was over, the Cardinals completed their three game sweep of the Nationals, meaning that a Pirate loss would put the division elimination number for the Pirates at 1.

Francisco Liriano had an alright start, but he was struggling all afternoon. He only had one clean inning, and in all the rest he was dancing around baserunners and pulling a magnificent tight rope walk. Miraculously, the game was 1-1 heading into the bottom of the sixth (what's with the bottom of the 6th in Wrigley lately?)

Liriano put two runners on. His pitch count topped 100, so you just hoped he could get out of the 6th and then he'd be done. But Liriano grooved a pitch to Darnell McDonald (who I didn't even know was still in the majors until this series - I'll always remember him for pitching in that crazy extra inning game with the Red Sox and O's last year) which was deposited in left field bleachers for a 3 run homer. 4-1 Cubs.

As bad as the Cubs bullpen has looked this year, you'd think the Bucs could at least make a run at the 3 run lead, and they did, but it was too little too late, as Jose Tabata's 1 out triple in the 9th knocked in the Bucs' 2nd run of the game, but that's all they could get.

Normally you'd be satisfied with any winning series on the road, but the Bucs really needed to sweep the Cubs to have a fighting chance at the division, and that's even if the Cards didn't sweep the Nats. Now it would take a miracle, with the Bucs needing to sweep the Reds in Cincy (very tough to do), the Cards getting swept by the Cubs in St. Louis (flat out not going to happen), and the Bucs then winning a division champion play-off game. Fangraphs gives the Bucs a 0.4% chance of winning the division. So I suppose we can say goodnight to that.

This is disappointing, because I have been pulling for the Pirates to win the division all year. The Pirates have never finished 1st in the NL Central since its inception in 1994. Hell, this is the first time the Pirates have finished over .500 since the inception of the NL Central.

But we have to remember, what's the point of winning the division?

To get to the division series.

The Pirates can still do that. It's gonna take some work, and a lot of luck, but the Pirates can still do this.

In large part, this last series in Cincinnati is irrelevant. The winner of the series will have a very slight advantage in the Wild Card game with home field advantage, but a single game has so much variance that home field is pretty much meaningless except for the sentimental value and the ticket sales. It would be really nice for the city of Pittsburgh to see a playoff game, you'd hate for the Bucs to lose their first game back in the postseason after so many years, but you'd really hate for that one game to be on the road, and have PNC Park remain to see zero playoff games into next year. So here's my expectations and how I'd feel about certain outcomes, ignoring the exceedingly unlikely ones:

1. Pirates lose home field and lose the WC game in Cincy. BAD. This is the worst case scenario and would be a big disappointment.

2. Pirates win home field and lose the WC game in Pittsburgh. Not good, but I've always thought PNC would be a wonderful place for a playoff game. The atmosphere would be amazing, I have no doubt. It would be a disappointing outcome of course, but still would be great to watch.

3. The Pirates make the division series. GREAT. In this case, I don't care whether or not the Bucs hosted the WC game, because they'll be guaranteed at least one home game anyway, which will be super fun. And this is of course ignoring the best part, the Division Series! I would be glued to the television set, I'm gonna relish every moment of this series if it happens, I'm dying to see some competitive October baseball by the Bucs!

4. ???? Everything after the Division Series would be gravy. My goal for this team is to make one of the NLDSs, and then let's see what happens.

Let's do this.

But first, a stop in Cincy. Let's go Bucs.

Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Bucs lose 2 of 3 vs. the Reds, but beat the Cubs and make the playoffs the next day

20 September - Reds 6 Pirates 5 F/10 - Wednesday was a bad loss, but it wasn't a landmark game level of bad.

This was.

The Pirates fell behind from the get-go, with Brandon Phillips coming around to score on a Ryan Ludwick single after being walked by Liriano. Those walks always come back to bite you.

That first inning, and a fifth inning home run by Todd Frazier were the only blemishes on an outstanding start by Francisco Liriano, who was stellar over 8 innings, and only needed 94 pitches.

Then the bottom of the first happened.

BOOM. Tabata HR. Tie ballgame.

BOOM. Walker HR. 2-1 lead.

Wow.

The crowd was fired up and the atmosphere was amazing. The Pirates were gonna fight tooth and nail for their hometown crowd, and everyone loved it.

Fast forward to the 9th inning of the game. The score is now 5-2 Pirates.

It seemed like Liriano could've easily come out for the ninth, but Hurdle opted instead to bring in Mark Melancon to finish the ballgame. A move I 100% agreed, and still agree, with. Liriano was quoted after the game saying that he took himself out, feeling that he was done, though that is mostly irrelevant.

Mark struck out Joey Votto on four pitches. The Reds' biggest hitter is out, and you have to be thinking we've got this in the bag.

Ludwick singled to right, again showing Mark's recent struggled avoiding opposite way hits to righties (he's actually way better against lefties, due to that deadly cutter, shades of Mariano Rivera there; of course, that's no coincidence, as that's who taught Melancon the pitch)

Jay Bruce grounded out. Runner on 2nd and 2 out. Still overwhelmingly confident.

Then the big play. A softly hit grounder by Frazier to shortstop Jordy Mercer, who charges but has to rush the throw. He throws the ball away. A play that should've been made, and now Frazier is a 2nd. Ludwick scores, 5-3.

Cozart singled just barely over the glove of Neil Walker. Billy Hamilton ran for him, and the speedster narrowly stole 2nd. Then Melancon has an extended battle with Reds catcher and Punxsutawney native Devin Mesoraco, and on the tenth pitch of the at bat, Mark lets a cutter leak a bit over the middle inside section of the plate, and Mesoraco hits it on a bounce to Pedro Alvarez's left. Alvarez lunges but the ball bounds off his glove, and at that point there is no catching Billy Hamilton. Tie game. 5-5.

The Reds would win the game in the 10th, when Joey Votto hit a solo shot to center off Kyle Fanrsworth (Good job by Kyle thus far, but this is why I didn't want to see him in any more high pressure situations) and Aroldis Chapman closed out the bottom half.

Just terrible. The Pirates needed this game. And if the Bucs lose out on the division by a game, heck even if they lose out on home field advantage for the Wild Card game by a game... this is the game that people will look back to it.

We had it. And it slipped through our fingers.

Not only was the loss crushing, but this was the first loss of the year that really put the Pirates into “longshot” status for the division, as the Cards took game one of their 3 game set in Milwaukee.

Mark Melancon was ridiculously close to finishing off this game so many times. And it just didn't happen. And now the Pirates will have to dust themselves off and win the next two games, because I don't see how their ever going to catch St. Louis otherwise. And that's not to even mention home field in the Wild Card game.

21 September - Reds 2 Pirates 4 - The story in this one: a stumbling Pirates team faces the man who no-hit them in PNC Park at about this time last year. What would happen?

Homer Bailey didn't come close this time.

Bailey couldn't make it through 6, and despite falling behind 2-0 early, Burnett's fortitude to hold together a great start and the heroics of Russel Martin, Marlon Byrd, and Pedro Alvarez carried this one.

Jason Grilli would record the save in place of a tired Melancon, Grilli's first save since before his injury.

22 September - Reds 11 Pirates 3 - Jeff Locke got crushed in what will surely be his final start, and perhaps will be his final appearance of the 2013 season. Locke only managed to throw 1 IP, and arguably, with the rosters expanded and given his recent track record, he shouldn't have been allowed to go that far. He didn't have enough control to do what he does, and despite a couple of glimmers of hope from recent starts, it's become clear that Locke just doesn't have it in him right now. It's been a good year for you Jeff, don't forget that. I hope to see you back in form next spring. You're one of my very favorite pieces of the 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates, kid.

The Pirates were down 5-0 after 1.

Gomez came in and didn't have things go his way either. Bucs down 7-0 after 2.

Brandon Cumpton and Stolmy Pimentel combined for 5 innings of scoreless relief following Gomez, and the Pirates started to look like they might crawl back into this one, as they made it 7-3 by dint of a Walker HR, a Snider pinch hit HR, and a Morneau sac fly.

But Mazzaro couldn't get out of the 8th, gave up 3 runs, and that was all she wrote.

The big crusher in this series is obviously game 1. A winning weekend would've placed the Bucs a game back of the Cards with a week left in the season, as well as a game ahead of Cincinnati, and with the Bucs owning the tie breaker (head to head wins) for home field in the Wild Card game so far, it would've been extremely difficult for the Reds to take that away from them.

But instead the Bucs' division hopes again hang by a thread, somewhere in the 10% range. The Bucs head to Wrigley field, the Reds go home to host the Mets, and the Cards go home to host the red-hot Nationals.

Going into the final week, you have to think that, in order to win the division, the Pirates need to go at least 5-1, since it's hard to imagine the Cards being worse than 3-3, considering they have three games against the Cubs. And of course, there are the Cincinnati Reds in the lane next to us.

23 September - Pirates 2 Cubs 1 - Morton pitched great (again), and it looked like the Pirates would blow another one of his fantastic starts (again).

But Starling Marte said no. After Melancon, who's seemingly returned to his set-up role (a move I don't have a problem with, though it will inevitable be justified by Melancon's perceived "ineffectiveness" recently, which I truly believe has just been ghastly luck) again yielded a run to give up a lead.

Once again, I repeat, Melancon is still amazing. He's still inducing weak contact the vast majority of the time. The only fundamental flaw I notice with him is fewer K's, but really he should be fine and I still have just as much confidence in him as at any point earlier in the season. He's still not getting rocked. Indeed, he never has this year.

Marte delivered a clutch solo HR off Kevin Gregg to untie a ballgame in the top of the ninth. Great to see, for so many reasons.

Now the game up to that point was very good. But the ninth inning made it legendary.

Tony Watson led off the ninth for a lefty-on-lefty matchup with Anthony Rizzo. Watson fell behind 2-0 in the count, but induced a hard grounder down the line that was picked by Pedro, who fired a throw across the diamond, which Justin Morneau somehow snared on an in-between hop. An amazing play on both ends.

Hurdle then brought in Jason Grilli to hopefully record the final two outs.

Grilli immediately walked Dioner Navarro.

Grill then got ahead of Nate Schierholtz and then got him to ground into a fielders choice, a nifty play by Justin Morneau throwing to catch the lead runner before Navarro could reach 2nd.

So now, the situation: 2 outs, bottom of the ninth, Bucs up by 1.

Grilli drives Cubs centerfielder Ryan Sweeney into a 2-2 count. Grilli then delivers a fastball at the top of the strike zone, which Sweeney gets on top of and dunks into right center field. Schierholtz is off on contact and rounding second. Marlon Byrd runs in to snag the ball but the ball bounds off his glove! Cutch quickly picks up the ball and fires it into the infield, where Justin Morneau is standing as the cutoff man. Schierholtz was just waved around third.

McCutchen-Morneau-Martin. Schierholtz caught at the plate. Bucs win.

I couldn't believe that play after I witnessed it. And from the looks of it, neither could Mark Melancon or Jason Grilli.

The Pirates went into the clubhouse at 10:46 Central Time with the Magic Number at 1.

12 minutes later, the Pirates were in the playoffs.

The Cardinals held on to their 4-3 lead to beat the Washington Nationals, and the last team that could possibly take a playoff spot away from the Pirates (or the Reds) was eliminated.

The Pirates are in the playoffs for the first time since Sid Bream slid. And why? Because Martin tagged Nate Schierholtz when he slid.

That relay, picking up the ball booted by Byrd, and getting it into Martin's glove, will forever symbolize the Pirates struggle to re-enter the playoffs after 21 years.


That, and Russell Martin, his knees still on the ground, holding up the ball above his head, victorious.

Thursday, September 19, 2013

Pirates only take 1 of 4 from the Padres, Drop to a game back

Just as last series was a bit retro, so was this one. The good ol' Pirates I know from around May would get their wins with exceptional pitching and just enough offense to get by. But along with that pattern always came stretches of "god, are we ever gonna score again?"

These valleys of offense would always seem to crop up at terrible times too. Like when the Bucs faced a division rival. I remember the Pirates going through this against the Reds way back in late May.

And here it is again. Not against a division rival, but these games are pretty damn meaningful and this is not the time you want your offense to go south. Honestly, the bats had been floundering for a few games now, but we didn't really start complaining about it until the L's showed up. At this point in the season, it's all about results.

16 September - Padres 2 Pirates 0 - Now the bats were struggling, I get that. But sometimes you just run up against a pitcher who's just on his game for whatever reason. It's tough to tell how much is them being awesome and you sucking, but there are some clues.

On Monday, Andrew Cashner was on his game. Over the course of 9 innings he 1-hit the Bucs. He threw 97 pitches. He struck out 7.

The Pirates only saving grace was Tabata's single to lead off the 7th which broke up the perfect game.

A.J. Burnett bounced back from 2 straight rough starts and had a good start of his own, but his 2 run 6 2/3 IP was nothing compared to Cashner.

At this point I am getting very worried about the Pirates' bats, but I'm willing to grant them one game to get their act together offensively. This is their 5th straight game scoring 4 runs or fewer, but with regard to tonight I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and just Cashner just had a great game.

At least we avoided a Homer Bailey type situation.

The Cards lost to the Rockies so the division is still tied.

17 September - Padres 5 Pirates 2 - After returning to the rotation after his rest/hiatus/minor league time, Jeff Locke had one serviceable start followed by a phenomenal one. Unfortunately his third start was a step backward from both of those.

Jeff gave up 4 runs in 5 innings. He walked 3 and gave up 7 hits. He struggled with command, and his curve was getting swatted all over the place, very reminiscent of his struggles in July and August.

As I've mentioned before, Locke needs all his pitches working for him to be effective. His fastball looked not great but okay, his change was very good (as usual), but his curve was not good. It's hard to tell what's the cause and effect here. It seemed to me that he was falling behind when he couldn't get swings and misses on his curve, and he would either lay his fastball in there to get hit, or his curve for an even worse result. Was his fastball command off, making him try to get more done with his curve than he could manage? Or was his fastball okay, just that he couldn't get guys out with his curve? In most cases I would say the former, since Locke was falling behind a lot, and guy who fall behind don't have trouble finishing batters off because they aren't even getting to two strikes! Yet I'm not sure I can say that since the Pirate catchers, I've noticed, often have Locke "pitch backwards", establishing his off-speed early in the at-bat. This is reasonable, since you don't want to lay in Locke's average fastball to get hammered on the first pitch, but it makes analyzing which pitch is screwing him up all the tougher.

One thing I can say for sure is that Locke has an awesome changeup. Even on days he's not going well he gets swings and misses on that. I've done in depth looks at Locke in the past, but maybe in the off season I'll have the time to do a pitch type kind of analysis on him. Could be interesting. He's a very interesting pitcher and probably my second favorite Pirate starter to watch after Cole. Liriano's great too, he's just not quite as intriguing to me as Locke is, in a geekery sort of way.

Anyway, let's come off that tangent.

The big blow to Locke was a 3-run home run he allowed to Jedd Gyorko. And from that the Pirates could never recover, why?

Because their offense was gone. Again.

The only guys who had decent nights were McCutchen - 2 hits, Gaby Sanchez - 2 hits (facing a lefty, so no surprise there), and Locke, actually, who was 1 for 1.

Marte, who started for the first time since his hand injury, got a hit, and so did Marlon Byrd (a 2 RBI double that really should've been caught, but right fielder Kyle Blanks tripped and fell), that was it. 7 scattered hits, one was a complete gift. Lots of 0fers.

Locke's start was troubling, and I'm a bit worried for him some his next start against the Reds, but I think he stands a good chance of bouncing back.

However, the real issue continues to be the offense. Getting nothing but 2 gift runs off of Eric Stults is not acceptable. There is too much on the line.

The Cards slaughtered the Rockies 11-4 and took a one game lead in the Central. The Reds beat up on the Astros too, can't be surprised about that, and they continue to inch up in the standings.

18 September - Padres 3 Pirates 2 - One of the more heartbreaking games in recent memory. After the game was over I was hearing the announcers say it was the worst loss of the year. I guess people have really short memories because there were quite a few losses earlier in the season that were way worse than this one. I know this is a little different since it's the last two weeks and the Bucs are fighting for playoff positioning, but the thing is that closers sometimes blow saves, even Melancon, and that's just the way it goes sometimes. Melancon has earned our respect 10-fold and the Bucs don't sniff 87 wins without him. I also get that the Pirates clawed their way from underneath a 1-0 deficit when their offense looked like a pile of bones, but honestly, while a 2-1 win would've been great, and it was a huge missed opportunity to win it, it wouldn't have been an Earth-shattering thing to beat the Pads by a run.

Andrew McCutchen came up in the 7th and hit a 2 run homer to put the Bucs up 2-1. Melancon gave up a bunch of dinky hits to right field, none of them hit hard, and gave up 2 runs to relinquish the lead.

Morton was fantastic. It was tough to see his great start go to waste. 8 IP 1 ER 2 H 3 BB 9 K's.

The Cards and Reds won again, so now the Bucs are 2 games back of the Cards and only a half-game above the Reds for 2nd. The bats are still in the freezer. These 3 games have almost entirely sapped the Pirates chances for the division. Not that a 2 game deficit is impossible to come back from in 10 games, but the Pirates are playing 6 games against the Reds while the Cards over the next week and a half, while the Cards play the Brewers and the Nats. Both teams have a 3 game series against the Cubs. I know for a fact that Reds + Reds >>>> Brewers + Nats. Although, the Nats have been turning it on lately, I still don't think they're as good as the Reds.

(Aside: On this day I wrote this Reddit post trying to explain why the Pirates have been more of an average team in the 2nd half vs. the 1st half)

Signs are starting to point to the dreaded Wild Card game. This is not the time to give up though.

19 September - Padres 1 Pirates 10 - If you would've told me Cole would have an electric start and win the game, I would've believed you. If you had told me the Pirates would score 10 runs and obliterate Ian Kennedy, I wouldn't have.

Both of those happened. And it was glorious.

It's hard for me to celebrate this win, since I mostly look at it as a salvaging of the series. You hear people talk about it as a "momentum shift", but of course momentum doesn't exist in baseball.

But that was a very fun game to watch. Cole was lights-out. 12 K's in 6 frames. He got pulled because of his pitch count and the Bucs were up 6-1 at the time.

The big outburst happened in the 4th, when Pedro Alvarez turned a 1-1 tie (the Pirates got their first run in some not so impressive fashion like a fielder's choice that I don't care enough about to look up) into a lead with a blast to center. Ian Kennedy, who the Pirates battled hard in the early innings (Morneau had a 12 or 13 pitch at-bat against him early), couldn't recover and when the Pirates put runners on 2nd and 3rd he struck out Cole (Cole has a cool moment when he gave a nod to Jay Bell I believe after he gave him a tip to take the next pitch cause it was gonna be a curve, and it was), but gave up a 2-run double to Jose Tabata, who earned my complete respect with that clutch 2-out hit.

Walker also had a two run homer later that inning, and Kennedy was done.

In the 6th Cole continued to cruise despite his pitch count getting up there. The was a funny moment where Tony Sanchez tried to catch a ball that bounced off the limestone but sort of fell over and Cole smiled from the mound, which you almost never see.

Cole struck out the final batter of the 6th for his 12 K and was pumped.

Hurdle's been good lately, but there was a questionable call by him to have Tony Watson relieve Cole for the 7th in a 6-1 game. I would've much rather seen Kris Johnson or Bryan Morris there and saved Watson, since he's really our #2 reliever at this point. Oh well, a minor complaint I suppose.

Tony Sanchez made the highlight reels with a daring catch where he grabbed a foul pop before tumbling hard into the Padres' dugout. It was scary for a moment, as it looked like he might have hurt his head, but he was okay. Love to see a player playing hard, even if it was a 9-1 game. Love the intensity there.

Watson, Grill, and Pimentel were all fine in relief. The Bucs win #88.

The best news of the day though came out of Denver, where the Rockies defeated the Cards after 15 tough innings. The Cards blew the lead in the 9th when Todd Helton, who is retiring at the end of the year, and also is pretty clearly injured, hit a game tying homer.

The Rox won it in the 15th on a triple, and a weirdish play at the plate where Molina couldn't come up with a throw from the outfield that beat DJ LeMahieu by a mile. LeMahieu didn't even touch the plate on his way by! But he quickly tapped the corner of the plate before the Cards (who looked almost comatose on that play, who could blame them) reacted.

The Pirates had the easier draw. I'd rather play the Pads at home than the Rox in Coors. But the Cards went 2-2 and we only snagged 1. Just the kind of result you didn't want to see, since it only gets tougher from here.

But as Thursday's game will show you, anything is possible in a small enough sample size. Even a seemingly non-existent offense getting 10 runs. So why not a team making up a game in the last 9 games when the schedules are stacked against them?

The Pirates have worked hard to get to this point. They're a good team, and when you get this far and the division leads get this close, the tiniest thing can make the difference. The Pirates might not win the division, indeed, the odds are against them doing it, but they're within striking distance. And who knows what's in store for us these last 3 series.

The Bucs are a game back in the standings, a game up on the Reds. And now I think we can finally say it. Here comes the BIGGEST SERIES IN PNC PARK HISTORY. Seriously, though. This one's pretty damn important.

Let's do this. Bring on the Redlegs.

Monday, September 16, 2013

Taking 3 of 4 against the Cubs

Great starting pitching. Great bullpen. Great defense. Just enough offense to make it work.

It was the formula that worked for the Pirates earlier this year. And though it is not the ideal recipe for sustained success (would it kill a team to get a few insurance runs, now and then) over the course of an entire season due to fluctuations of a tremendous number of variables, it could do wonders for a team down the stretch, and *ahem* in the post-season.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves though, these are the Cubs we're talking about. But the road to the postseason goes through the Cubs 7 times, and if you don't take advantage, your post-season stay may be painfully short.

Here are the first 4 of those 7 games, and the first 4 games of an 11 day homestand. The last homestand for the Pirates in 2013.

12 September - Cubs 1 Pirates 3 - Would you have believed me if I told you this would be the most comfortable win the Pirates would have all series?

What if I also told you the Pirates would win the series?

Jeff Locke came into this game looking to improve on his last start in St. Louis, a serviceable appearance and a decent return to the rotation against a solid lineup. Now he'd be facing the Cubs, a team with a medium-to-not good offense (21st in OPS).

Jeff turned some heads tonight. He had all of his pitches working, the change and the curve looked especially good, both in placement and movement, and his fastball was enough to get him by. This was really the first time we saw pre-all star break Locke since, well, the all star break. Honestly. He looked really really solid. The Cubs are no juggernauts offensively, but they're not pushovers either, and Locke dominated. 7 IP 1 ER 3 H 1 BB 5 Ks. 61% strike to ball ratio (which is about league average). Really heartening to see just 1 walk, control seemed to be getting away from him for a while. Also only 3 hits is fantastic, the Cubs just were off-balance all night, which is what Locke needs to do against the lineups he faces.

This was more than a serviceable start. He might not be this good each time out of course, but if he can stay within the boundaries of his last start and this one the rest of the way, he'll be giving the Bucs a chance to win each time out, and more. Great to see.

Byrd, Alvarez, and Mercer provided the RBIs in this one. Mercer knocked in Barmes after Clint singled in the eighth, nice little bit of SS offensive attack there. Mercer also made a fantastic play deep in the hole at short to get Jeff Locke out of the 6th inning. Nice scoop by Morneau too on that play, nice having him at 1st defensively so far.

Melancon closed it out for the save. Win #85.

13 September - Cubs 5 Pirates 4 - Too bad this ended in a loss, because the 4th inning was insane.

Score is 3-0 in favor of the Cubs.

Pedro Alvarez (who's starting to heat up a bit lately, at just the right time let's hope!) hit a ball deep to right-center, which took a weird bounce off the top of the wall. The Running of the Bull began, and Pedro steamed around the bases for an inside the park home run. Replays later showed that the ball bounced off a fan's hands, but no fan interference was called and the Cubs didn't even argue.

Almost immediately after, Martin pulled a ball deep into the left field seats.

And then, Garrett Jones, given a spot start in right field, launched a HR to center. 3 straight homers to tie the game. Absolutely crazy.

The Bucs took the lead in the 6th on an error. It was 4-3 after 6.

Morton was decent, coming off his abysmal start against the Cards. He made it through 5 innings and gave up 3. You'd like more length, but he kept the Pirates in it.

Wilson did his job in the 6th, but Grilli couldn't make it out of the 7th. He struck the first two guys out, but walked Valbuena on an at-bat that included a borderline pitch called a ball that could've ended the inning.

Then Grilli served up a 2 run shot to Anthony Rizzo. 5-4 Cubs.

Grilli has not looked amazing since his return, he hasn't seemed to be able to finish off innings. However he hasn't looked awful either, despite his decreased velocity. In his 3 IP since returning from the DL, he's racked up 4 strikeouts and walked 2. I think he's just been tiring faster, and as a result can't get out of an inning without giving up a couple hits unless it goes perfectly.

Grilli is a key piece to the bullpen, and I would love to see him settle into a role where he can be used in high-leverage situations. Unfortunately, he isn't there yet even though we thought he might be, and in this instance it came back to bite the Bucs.

The Pirates put a runner on first in each of the last three innings, but couldn't do anything else. Tough loss.

14 September - Cubs 1 Pirates 2 - What would Gerrit Cole do after the best start of his career thus far, the one that nabbed 82?

Cole was great again. Racking up another bushel of Ks, 7 in total. Cole gave up a first inning RBI double, that would've been a 2 RBI double if not for a stellar wall to plate relay by the Bucs. Cole settled down quickly after that, only allowing 3 runners to reach in the 2nd through 6th innings. He also struck out the side in the 3rd.

With the Pirates knotted in a 1-1 tie, Cole allowed the first two runners to reach in the 7th, and after a sacrifice the situation was 2nd and 3rd with one out. Cole got pinch hitter Dioner Navarro to strike out on a 96 mph fastball middle-in, and then induced a ground ball from Starlin Castro to the shortstop, also on the fastball, to get out of the inning unscathed. Cole was pumped, screaming and pounding his glove, he is so fun to watch.

Cole is just toxic when he has his slider working and is comfortable with it. He's been getting more comfortable with it recently, which is why his K% has skyrocketed, very cool to see. Cole still relies on his fastball the most though, which is why you see him go to it in higher pressure situations like the on in the 7th. However, as he's been using his breaking balls more, his fastball has gotten more potent, as the batters can't just sit on his fastball anymore. He pitches way better when he has his slider working next to a 96mph fastball than when he's not using his slider next to an 100mph fastball. The drastically high speeds and the movement differences really throw hitters off. The crazy part is he's still improving. Love it.

I also want to note a stellar play that Pedro made at third, where he knocked down Darwin Barney's line drive, picked it up on one bounce, and fired the ball to first with his momentum carrying him into foul territory. Pedro has had many errors this year, but he's still very good defensively over at third, because he can make crazy plays like that thanks to his great arm.

Tabata hit a HR in the 6th to tie the ballgame (Tabata's done a great job in the absence of Starling Marte), and Byrd hit an opposite field go-ahead homer in the 7th.

Watson got a 1-2-3 inning in the 8th. Melancon allowed a runner on a wild pitch strikeout (Melancon has just been filthy this year), but erased him on a double play to end the game and get Cole the victory.

Win #86.

15 September - Cubs 2 Pirates 3 - Liriano was great again. He actually had a no-no going for a while (into the 7th) but you could tell he was running out of steam even before then. He then allowed a homer to Castillo which tied the game at 2. Tough ending to a great start, but still a very good start overall.

Bryan Morris came into a tie game to relieve Liriano with an inherited runner on 1st, terrifying me briefly, but Morris actually retired the next 3 batters in a row. Also a good sign from a guy who's been struggling. I'm still very wary of him coming into high-leverage situations, but a few more appearances like the one today would do wonders for my opinion of him and the state of the bullpen as a whole. I'm not counting on anything from Morris personally, but anything good would obviously be a huge plus.

Justin Morneau knocked in the lead-taking run in the eighth, driving in McCutchen (who was hit by a pitch, then advanced to second on a single by Byrd) for his first Bucco RBI.

I love seeing different guys step up every game. It's obviously some guys more than others, but it says a lot about the Pirates this year that they can look to anybody on the team and say he has gotten a big hit for them when it counts, it shows that it's a dynamic team with contributors up and down the lineup, way different than we've seen in years past when it's been McCutchen and 6 or 7 no shows.

Also wow, that Byrd guy, huh. Man, what's gotten into that guy?

Farnsworth (look at me, saying I didn't want this guy pitching in high leverage situations near the end of a game) pitched a fine 8th, only walking a batter. And then Melancon came in. By then it was already over. 1-2-3 inning. Win #87. Bucs take the series.

Recap: Overall, great starting pitching (Locke, Cole, Liriano). Great bullpen (Watson, Wilson, Farnsworth, Melancon). Great defense (only one error, and a bevy of fantastic plays).

3 of 4. A successful weekend no doubt.

The Cards kept pace thanks to their 2 of 3 series win over the hapless Seattle Mariners (the Cards won a game in 10 innings over the weekend on a passed ball, yeesh) and the division is still tied at the top. The Bucs now host the Padres for 4 while the Cards head to Colorado for 4. Slightly easier matchup for the Bucs, but not by much. It's gonna be awfully tough to keep pace with the Cards when the Reds series start up. Gotta keep flooring the accelerator.

Friday, September 13, 2013

Sweeping the Rangers in Texas

Whew. Well suffice to say I did not see this coming following the Cards series. And it doesn't quite make up for the Cards series either. But it sure as hell was a step forward for the Pirates.

The Monday game I blogged about in the last post. What a game. One thing I wanted to mention about it though: I was listening to Buster Olney's Baseball Tonight podcast and they mentioned something about Monday's game I hadn't thought of. When Pedro Alvarez was facing Yu Darvish in the 7th inning of a scoreless game with 2 outs and a runner on 2nd, it was a matchup of the pitcher with the most strikeouts in the majors with one of, if not the most, strikeout prone hitters in the majors.

The count was driven to 2 strikes. And then Pedro hit his double.

On to Tuesday:

10 September - Pirates 5 Rangers 4

Tuesday was the Andrew McCutchen show. 3 hits. An RBI on each one. His third hit in the 9th drove in the Pirates' 5th run, an insurance run that turned out to be completely necessary. Francisco Liriano pitched well, bouncing back from geting rocked in Milwaukee.

The bullpen was very shaky. Grilli gave up a run in 2/3 of an inning and then Mark Melancon came in to save a 5-2 ballgame, that ended up 5-4 with the tying run on 3rd when it was all said and done. Very un-Mark Melancon-like, but he's be so utterly dominant that there's no reason to worry about one lackluster outing, especially when he converted the save.

There was a great moment when the game ended. Tony Sanchez delivered an emphatic fist pump after catching the last strike and out of the game, a third pitch strikeout of Adrian Beltre.

Melancon then gave a tiny fish pump of his own. It was the most animated you'd ever seen him, and he almost did nothing at all. You know it was a close call when Melancon has any reaction whatsoever.

11 September - Pirates 7 Rangers 5

Clint Barmes was the star in this one. He had a bases-loaded walk to put the Bucs up 2-0 in the 4th, and then a solo HR in the 8th, providing the insuring 7th run. Which was super helpful considering Melancon was out of commission for the day due to pitching in the two previous games. As a result, Hurdle had to call on Gomez and Morris (gulp) in key spots.

The 6th, 7th, and 8th innings were seesaw rollercoasters where the Bucs would jump ahead, and the Rangers would slash there way back to within striking distance. The 6th and 7th were the fault of A.J. Burnett, who started off the game brilliantly (getting 14 of the first 15 out, the perfecto being broken in the 5th) but just ran out of gas by the 7th. He ended up giving up 5 runs on the night when the bullpen couldn't stop the inherited runners from scoring.

Gomez relived Burnett and was shakey. With the score 6-5 in the 7th, Hurdle called on Morris to get the third out, and Morris gave up a long fly ball that was luckily tracked down in left.

How the Pirates dodged that bullet I'll never understand, Morris should really not have been used in that situation unless Hurdle's hand was forced, but he had other options.

Morris continued his appearance in the 8th and inevitable yielded a couple baserunners. Vin Mazzaro was able to navigate out from that mess. The bottom of the 7th and 8th made my head hurt. And I was dreading the 9th, with no Melancon on the horizon.

After Barmes' HR, making it a 2 run game, Kyle Farnsworth came in. I was bracing for the worst, but to my pleasant surprise he got a 1-2-3 inning. I hope Farnsworth is not a go-to in big situations most of the time, but if he can step up every now and then he could be a valuable asset in a tiring bullpen down the stretch (right now I only have two relievers I really trust, and those are Watson and Melancon).

And that's how the west (Texas is in the west, right?) was swept.

So that's it. Three nailbiters, all in different ways. Three wins. Head back home to for our last homestand of the year. We gotta take advantage of the Cubs and the Pads before the Reds come to town.